2 CPD Points
Qualitative Assessment of Complex and Interacting Climate Risks
We traditionally quantify climate change risks as a function of the risk determinants of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Traditionally, insurers have been concerned with the built environment domain, focussing on assessing the damage to properties and buildings from natural disasters. Many practitioners are extending climate risk assessments to other domains to look at climate risk more holistically, as climate change does not only impact the built environment, but also the social, natural, and economics domains. But there are limitations to only relying on a quantitative assessment as climate change risk is extremely complex and interacts both internally between the determinants of risk, and externally with many other risks. This can lead to cascading and compound events with widespread systemic risk impacts. For example, vulnerabilities in one domain can stem from multiple hazards, leading to exposures in other domains, whilst exposures that change over time can create changing vulnerabilities across domains. Hazard interactions from disasters may cause feedback loops that lead to untenable capacity to support social, economic, natural and built domains. A qualitative risk assessment can help identify deficiencies in quantitative modelling and suggest improvements for future risk assessments. Our methodology for qualitative assessment refers to reports aggregated from community interviews, which involves decision-makers, local officers, emergency response officers, and other stakeholders. The methodology combs through the main conclusions from the reports to form our basis for the interactions between hazard, vulnerability, and exposure under the four domains (built, social, economic, and natural). The confidence of the interaction increases where there are multiple instances of the same interaction being noted across different reports, or sometimes across similar themes within the same report. The output from our qualitative assessment are multiple mapping diagrams that show the interactions captured within the reports within and between domains. We then draw conclusions from the mapping diagrams, which can be then used to supplement the quantitative risk assessment and identify gaps for future assessments.
Evelyn Yong, Sharanjit Paddam and Portia Elliott
3 May 2024