Left-Field Risks in 2025 Identified by Australian Actuaries

In the second article on emerging risks in 2025 identified by Australian actuaries, we examine ‘left-field’ risks; that is, risks which might not be widely recognised but have high potential impact. There was strong representation from general insurance, life insurance, and risk management practice areas in the survey.

Professional challenges for actuaries

Multiple respondents expressed concern about the future of the actuarial profession itself.

Issues raised included “erosion of trust in the actuarial profession due to facilitating unfair pricing practices”, “actuarial qualifications and the Institute losing relevance in insurance pricing” and “reduction in capability of new Fellows - further diluting actuarial influence in organisations”.

Some members also highlighted the risk of “difficulties in getting skilled actuaries as junior work is offshored” and “higher paid jobs in AI leading to high quality staff leaving”.

Responding to a changing environment for actuaries, the Actuaries Institute’s 2025-2027 Strategic Plan positions actuaries as analytical leaders and strategic thinkers so that they are ready to embrace change and help business, government and society thrive.

Social and demographic shifts

Several members identified broader social trends as emerging risks, including “civil unrest from inequality”, “increased mistrust of traditional media” and “lack of empathy for multi-cultural societies”.

These social dynamics could have significant long-term implications for actuarial assumptions around policyholder behaviour, social security systems and organisational culture.

The Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation has published two papers on this thematic, including recommendations for insurers: 

• Is the Social Legitimacy of Protest in Australia in Flux?
•   Terrorism and Violent Protests: Where Do These Disruptive Events Meet?

The Institute seeks to participate in the critical public policy and regulatory conversations that reflect and shape the environment in which members practice. The four areas of strategic opportunity in the Institute’s thought leadership program are sustainable community outcomes, climate change, technology transformations and societal challenges.

Relevant reading is available in the thought leadership catalogue , policy submissions , and Public Policy Statements .

Economic collapse scenarios

Some respondents highlighted the risk of severe economic events, including “stock and property market collapse”, “inflation following collapse in commodities and AUD” and “investment market collapse”. These tail-risk scenarios could have profound implications across all actuarial practice areas.

Useful sources of reading to stay in touch with these risks include speeches from ASIC, APRA and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) executives and the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and semi-annual Financial Stability Review .

Members may also find the Institute’s December 2022 Paper, The Long Run: Low probability, high impact scenarios for the Australian economy and financial markets , informative even though the economic context has evolved since that time.

Evolving expertise

The actuarial profession must anticipate challenges and develop responses to remain valuable in today’s complex risk environment.

While the traditional skill set of quantitative expertise, business acumen, and professional judgment remains relevant, continuous evolution is essential for ongoing impact.

Thank you to the members who responded to the survey. The Institute hopes to run it again later this year and strongly encourages your engagement.